Bryan S. Castro Senior Research Associate
Bryan Castro is a Senior Research Associate at Beacon Economics. Mr. Castro works across multiple practice areas with a focus on public policy analysis and economic, fiscal, and social impact analysis. His professional experience and research interests include labor economics – particularly how active labor market policies impact jobseekers’ transition to employment, economic development, international trade, public sector economics, and markets with frictions.
Mr. Castro is broadly experienced in using econometric software such as STATA, EViews, MATLAB, and R to perform statistical analysis and forecasting. He is also highly proficient in working with confidential Employment Development Department (EDD) data including clear knowledge about how to process the data and use it properly in public and private reports. He has performed employment and demographic analysis for the City of Los Angeles and has used EDD data to contribute to reports for the City of Long Beach and San Bernardino County.
Prior to joining Beacon Economics, Mr. Castro taught courses in macro and microeconomics, international trade, and economic development at California State University, Los Angeles. Prior to that, he was a Teaching and Research Assistant at the University of California, Irvine where he led courses in macroeconomics, econometrics, urban economics, risk and uncertainty, international trade, and economic development. As a Research Assistant, he also mapped global value chains of medical goods, pharmaceuticals, and vaccines related to COVID-19.
Mr. Castro is currently a PhD candidate in Economics at the University of California, Irvine. He holds an M.A. degree in Economics from the University of California, Santa Barbara, and a B.A. degree in Economics and B.S. degree in Mathematics from California State University, Long Beach.
Areas of expertise
No Nonsense Economics
The holidays have always been a time of higher-than-normal consumer spending. However, a drift downward in spending at this festive time of year has been occurring for years. This is likely a function of many things, the most important of which may be the decline in the number of children in the United States.
For all the sophistication of modern asset markets, at their core, they are still just Keynesian beauty contests. Keynes’s metaphor for the markets derived from a special type of beauty contest where the judges don’t pick who they think is most attractive, but who they think will be most attractive to all the other judges. His intuition is that traders are mainly trying to anticipate what the average trader thinks the average trader thinks is about to happen. Such nested logic can generate wild volatility in the market’s response to the silliest peices of news. This has been proven yet again in the waning days of 2023 with a big jump in equity and bond prices, all because of the odd notion that there has been a sharp pivot in Federal Reserve policy. The market now anticipates that the Fed will lower interest rates multiple times next year.