Economic and Revenue Forecasting
Dependable outlooks that intelligently inform investment and business strategy
Since 2007, Beacon Economics has delivered...
reliable forecasts and insights into the future direction of the macroeconomy. We provide top down outlooks for local economies, government and industry revenues, population dynamics, and other key metrics vital to public and private sector decision making. We also specialize in creating scenario forecasts that predict what might happen in the event of a tax increase, economic shock, or other impact, helping clients mitigate risk and better weigh policy decisions. �
Employing proprietary econometric models, our forecasts have been used by states, counties, and cities across the western United States, banks, hedge funds, investors, unions, economic and community development organizations, real estate firms, environmental groups, and major health care organizations.
Beacon Economics'
Forecasting Practice Is:
Beacon Economics does not follow the standard forecast narrative. Instead, we are willing to break with consensus and chart our own path. We are on record as one of the earliest forecasters of the 2007 sub-prime mortgage crisis and the global downturn that followed. Recently, we correctly predicted the V-shaped economic recovery that occurred after the COVID-19 pandemic, and the subsequent surge in inflation and interest rates driven by excessive government stimulus.
Combining and consistently using the best-in-class US macro-econometric model and our proprietary California model allows us to achieve more reliable forecasts for the nation and state. We use a top-down methodology that allows our insights to be reflected in local trends.
Each of our projects are designed to meet the needs of our clients, including custom built econometric models, scenario analyses, and high quality reports that are easy to digest and use across many forums. We are responsive and stay in close contact with clients throughout every project to ensure their objectives are met. Our forecast reliability is improved by ensuring that our model and inputs are updated continuously, accounting and adjusting for international, national, state, or regional developments and events that may affect the economic outlook.
As researchers, we take the objectivity of our forecasts seriously. We guard our independent, empirical research approach carefully with an uncompromising focus on reliability.
65+ Years Of Collective Experience Serving Industry And Business, Nonprofits, And State And Local Governments Nationwide
At Beacon Economics, You’ll Find:
Top-tier analytic skills and PhD level training
Unlike many consulting groups in this sphere, Beacon Economics’ forecast is led by PhD and Master’s level economists, not MBAs or urban planners. The academic training and credentials of our experts set us apart and are at the root of our commitment to analytic excellence.
Data expertise
We leverage vast datasets and apply sophisticated data processing to ensure the inputs going into our forecasts are the highest quality possible.
Creative and clear narratives
In addition to modeled forecasts and data analysis, our deliverables always include clear narrative explanations and insight about what an outlook means for a client’s objectives. We factor in how social and political events and trends will drive business, consumer, and policy choices. Many of our reports also include actionable recommendations.
Drilled-down local and public revenue forecasts
We utilize an effective top down methodology for local forecasting, mixing long-run (demographic trends) and short run (business cycles) drivers into our local models.Our history of reliable public revenue forecasts includes outlooks for sales tax, property tax, fees and assessments, and other local- and state-level revenue sources.
Best-in-class U.S. macro model and proprietary California model
We license and employ the award-winning U.S. macro-economic model to produce long- and short-term national forecasts. At the state level, we employ our exclusive and proprietary California macro-economic model, creating dependable statewide outlooks that minimize error. Overall, we have the ability to provide up-to-date forecasts of hundreds of U.S. economic indicators, and dozens of statewide indicators.
Our Approach: Recent Economic and Revenue Forecasting Projects
CLIENT: City of Las Vegas
Beacon Economics delivered an economic and revenue outlook for one of the nation’s most famous destination cities following the turmoil of the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis provided city leaders and local business interests with an accurate and comprehensive forecast for consumer and business driven revenue, personal income, employment, and commercial and residential real estate, including home values.
CLIENT: Downtown Long Beach Alliance
Beacon Economics developed and presented an independent analysis of future housing needs in the City of Long Beach through the year 2040. The analysis projected housing needs based on a combination of demographic and industry data, our proprietary economic forecast models, and
the state of local housing stock. The final product gave city leaders a roadmap for its General Plan update and a foundation for future land use decisions.
Our Experts
Meet our economists and public policy experts who specialize in regional economies. Each team member brings a unique blend of knowledge, experience, and passion to their work, ensuring that our clients receive the highest level of service and expertise.
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Christopher Thornberg
Founding PartnerChristopher Thornberg Ph.D. has been called many things throughout his career, but his favorite...
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Justin Niakamal
Manager, Regional and Sub-Regional AnalysisJustin Niakamal manages the Regional and Sub-Regional Analysis practice area at Beacon Economics....
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Related Services
Economic, Fiscal, and Social Impact Analysis
Beacon Economics specializes in successfully communicating the full economic, fiscal, and social impacts of events, institutions, projects, and investments.
Housing, Land Use and Real Estate Advisory
Beacon Economics partners with policymakers, non-profits, private businesses, and developers to advance actionable solutions to community housing and real estate challenges across the United States.
Regional and Sub-Regional Analysis
Beacon Economics’ wide-ranging regional and sub-regional economic analysis allows economic developers, city and county governments, private businesses, and other local stakeholders to understand deeply specific trends occurring within their communities – and to take actionable steps that capitalize on local strengths and address challenges.
Community and Economic Development
Our economic and community development products give cities and regions leading-edge tools to advance the performance of their local economies and compete in a modern economic ecosystem.
For
Projects
To connect with us or ask a question about our Community and Economic Development work, or any of Beacon Economics’ practice areas, please contact:
Business Development Team at 424-666-2165 or [email protected]