California’s merchandise export trade was nominally valued at $17.696 billion in August, according to a Beacon Economics’ analysis of the latest statistics released by the U.S. Census Bureau’s Foreign Trade Division. That represented a nominal 15.2% gain over the $15.360 billion in exports the state shipped in August 2025.

Over the same period, however, overall U.S. exports grew by 4.2% to $130.145 billion from $124.917 billion from one year earlier. As a result, California’s contribution to the nation’s merchandise export trade dropped back to the 8.6% share it enjoyed in August 2025.

Exports of California’s manufactured products in August increased by 7.4% to $10.571 billion from $9.840 billion in August 2025. Meanwhile, the state’s shipments abroad of non-manufactured commodities leaped by 25.0% to $2.263 billion from $1.811 billion. Re-exports jumped by 28.9% to $4.861 billion from $3.770 billion in August 2025.

Through the first eight months of this year, California has shipped merchandise valued at $130.145 billion abroad, a nominal 4.2% gain over the $124.917 billion shipped during the same period in 2025.

“These are truly impressive numbers that reflect the diversity of California’s economy,” said Jock O’Connell, Beacon Economics’ International Trade Advisor. “In addition to sharp increases in exports of computers and electronic products, we also saw major gains in shipments abroad of agricultural goods in August. Still, we continue to stress that these are nominal figures that do not reflect the real value of exports in an unsettled economy experiencing a heightened level of inflation.”

In the latest quarter, California’s merchandise export trade with the economies of East Asia rose by 3.6% as the value of shipments across the Pacific totaled $16.911 billion, up from $16.331 billion one year earlier.

Meanwhile, California’s exports to the European Union and the United Kingdom gained by 10.6%, increasing to $10.160 billion from $9.183 billion. The state’s exports to Latin America and the Caribbean (excluding Mexico) jumped by 13.8% to $2.514 billion from $2.209 billion.

Shipments to the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, and Kuwait) slipped by 14.4% to $783 million from $914 million one year earlier. California exports to Sub-Saharan Africa remained negligible, sliding by 5.9% to $159 million from $168 million.

Over half (54.4%) of California’s $49.242 billion merchandise export trade in the latest three months was shipped by air, while waterborne transport carried 23.3%. The balance of the state’s exports largely travelled overland to Canada and Mexico. Containerized shipments by sea accounted for just 17.3% of the total value of California’s merchandise export trade over the past three months.

Most trade analysts are being cautious with their estimates of growth in international trade and in America’s export trade. The reasons are obvious, even if President Trump and his advisors continue to repeat a narrative that lacks empirical support.

U.S. tariffs on imported merchandise remain high as well as unpredictable, meaning that the counter-tariffs and other import restrictions our trading partners are imposing on U.S. products are unnecessarily high and fluid. This imposes an incalculable burden on businesses looking to define marketing strategies beyond a few weeks or months. Additionally, the costs of transporting goods continue to challenge the resourcefulness and budgets of air carriers, ocean shipping lines, truckers, and railroads here and abroad.

In California, the price of the diesel oil that fuels the supply chains that run through the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and the airfreight terminals at Los Angeles International are up 61.4% from a year ago. Truckers serving Northern California’s Port of Oakland are currently paying 64.3% more for a gallon of diesel than they were at this time in 2025. Truckers hauling farm produce around the state’s Central Valley are paying 61.9% more for diesel than a year ago. The bunker fuel that powers oceangoing vessels costs shipping lines 68.2% more today than they did on October 6, 2025.

President Trump’s escalation of tariffs and restrictions on Canada are also having a direct effect on California’s exporters as our northern neighbor has long been the state’s second largest export destination. While August’s export figures showed surges in exports north of the border, next month’s data will likely show the start of sharp declines in California shipments to Canada.

The Iran-U.S. confrontation in the Persian Gulf is now in its eighth month, with no real sign of resolution. If anything, the recent expansion of Yemeni coastline controlled by Houthi forces and the tribe’s apparent eagerness to disrupt shipping through the Red Sea only complicates matters.

At home America’s gross national debt has now exceeded $40 trillion, with rising interest rates adding to the worries of U.S. businesses.

On the climate front, unusually strong El Nino effects this winter could result in severe weather patterns, including more frequent and violent storms that could disrupt business operations worldwide.

Finally, we cannot ignore the possibility of a constitutional crisis in the aftermath of the November 3 midterm election. Scenarios vary, but there is growing concern among many observers that President Trump and his supporters will seek to nullify the election’s results. Businesses looking for a happy holiday season may instead find more chaotic circumstances.