July 7, 2026
California Trade Report
Beacon Economics’ monthly analysis of California’s international trade activity
Welcome to the California Trade Report, Beacon Economics’ monthly analysis of California’s international trade activity. This report analyzes data released by the U.S. Census Bureau’s Foreign Trade Division and pinpoints important trends in the state’s import/export industry, identifying potential effects on the state’s economy. The report is only a sampling of the kind of economic research and data analysis available from Beacon Economics.
California Export Growth 'Unspectacular' In Latest Data
Through the first five months of this year, California has shipped merchandise valued at $79.942 billion abroad, a nominal 2.6% gain over the $77.914 billion shipped in the same period one year ago.
Texas again surpassed California in May as the nation’s leading importing state.
The U.S. Commerce Department reports that California was the state-of-destination for $45.113 billion in imported goods in May. That represented a 14.5% share of all U.S. merchandise imports in that month as well as an 18.8% increase over the $37.972 billion imported into California in May 2025.
Texas, meanwhile, reportedly accounted for 16.1% of America’s total merchandise import trade, up from a 12.4% share one year earlier. This May, Texas imported goods valued at $50.226 billion, a remarkable 68.2% increase from $34.250 billion in May 2025.
- California’s trade in manufactured imports in May was up 20.4% to $40.405 billion from $33.557 billion one year earlier.
- The state’s trade in non-manufactured imports in May, valued at $4.708 billion, was up 6.6% from the $4.415 billion in non-manufactured goods the state imported in May 2025.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE NUMBERS
As always, Beacon Economics advises against reading too much into month-to-month fluctuations in state export statistics, especially when focusing on specific commodities or destinations. Significant variations can occur due to unusual developments or exceptional one-off trades and may not be indicative of underlying trends. For that reason, Beacon Economics compares the latest three months for which data are available (i.e., March – May) with the corresponding period one year earlier. Please note that the numbers cited in this report are nominal values.
LEADING EXPORT COMMODITIES
The table below displays the latest year-over-year changes in California’s merchandise export trade during the last three months (March-May) for which statistics are available. Twelve commodity groups posted three-month export totals exceeding $1 billion. Eight of those recorded year-over-year gains.
DESTINATIONS
Thirteen foreign markets imported one billion dollars or more in goods from California in the March-May period of this year. Trade policy friction drove shipments to Mexico and Canada down by 7.5% from the same period last year. China nudged ahead of South Korea to claim fifth place among California’s top export markets. Taiwan and Japan had both overtaken China last year. The Netherlands, Germany, and the United Kingdom ranked among the Top Ten destinations for California exports.
In the latest three-month period, California’s merchandise export trade with the economies of East Asia rose by 10.2% as the value of shipments across the Pacific totaled $17.118 billion, up from $15.533 billion one year earlier. Meanwhile, California’s exports to the European Union and the United Kingdom gained by 11.6% to $10.289 billion from $9.222 billion.
The state’s exports to Latin America and the Caribbean (excluding Mexico) dropped by 5.1% to $2.438 billion from $2.568 billion largely due to a sharp 40.8% fall-off in shipments to Chile. Until the past few months, Chile has been California’s biggest export market in South America. Year-to-date, though, Brazil has reclaimed that distinction.
Shipments to Sub-Saharan Africa rose by 32.5% to $195 million from $147 million. In the three months following the start of hostilities against Iran on February 28, California exports to the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, and Kuwait) have plunged 42.2% to $589 million.
MODE OF TRANSPORT
THE OUTLOOK
Note: The U.S. Commerce Department has been publishing state-of-destination import statistics since 2008. Beacon Economics has long felt that state import data provide a highly misleading indication of the state in which imported goods were ultimately consumed. As a major gateway for the nation’s foreign trade, California has consistently been credited with an out-sized share of U.S. merchandise imports. However, we now believe that the process by which state-of-destination import statistics are compiled has become stable enough to be used to measure relative increases or decreases in the value of imported goods consumed or otherwise used by residents or businesses located in California. We strongly emphasize that we are solely interested in identifying trends. We continue to believe it is not useful to use state export and import statistics to calculate a state trade balance.
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