July 19, 2024
Beacon Employment Report | California
Presented by Beacon Economics
Copyright © Beacon Economics LLC
CALIFORNIA EMPLOYMENT EXPANSION CONTINUES BUT STATE STILL TRAILS NATION
Unemployment Rate Unchanged From Prior Month But Remains Highest In Nation
22,500
Job Growth�
California’s labor market expansion hit its 50th month in the latest numbers, with total nonfarm employment in the state growing by a seasonally adjusted 22,500 positions in June. May’s gains were revised to 43,300 in the latest numbers, a 400 decrease from the preliminary estimate of 43,700.
Employment growth in California has trailed the nation in recent years. Since February 2020 (the start of the pandemic), total nonfarm employment in the state has grown 2.1% compared to a 4.2% increase nationally. California increased payrolls by 1.3% from June 2023 to June 2024, trailing the 1.7% increase nationally over the same period.
1.3%
Annual Labor Force Decline
The state’s unemployment rate held steady at 5.2% in June, unchanged from the previous month, but remains the highest in the nation. California’s unemployment rate has jumped over the last year, and the newly unemployed are almost entirely younger worker (under age 35). Oddly, initial claims for unemployment insurance have remained stable over this period. Beacon Economics has connected the surge in youth unemployment to the state’s minimum wage hikes. An analysis of that phenomenon can be seen here.
5.2%
Unemployment Rate
California continues to struggle with its labor supply, although its workforce grew by 7,200 in June. Since February 2020, the state’s labor force has declined by -246,200 workers, a -1.3% drop. This is being driven largely by the housing shortage and the retirement of aging workers. In addition, the household survey has diverged from the payroll survey in recent years. In addition, the household survey has diverged from the payroll survey in recent years. Total nonfarm employment is up 2.2% over the last two years, according to the payroll survey, while in the household survey, household employment is down 0.3% over the same period.
“Notably, these two surveys are the basis of the monthly jobs estimates and their divergence could get worse next year when the survey sample is cut as a cost saving measure,” said Justin Niakamal, Regional Research Manager at Beacon Economics.
View Seasonally Adjusted Industry Employment Data For California’s 28 MSA’s/MD’s:
The Beacon Employment Report | California is a unique analysis of California’s employment numbers and trends. Each month, we link our own econometric predictions to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the California Employment Development Department to identify important changes in employment across industries and regions. The Beacon Employment Report is also one of the few analyses that uses seasonally adjusted numbers, which are critical to revealing accurate trends and insights within data. The analysis is a sample of the kind of research available from Beacon Economics.
The contents of this report are based on information derived from carefully selected sources Beacon Economics believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing presented here shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee.
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