September 20, 2019
Beacon Employment Report
Presented by Beacon Economics
Welcome to the Beacon Employment Report, a unique analysis of California’s employment numbers and trends. Each month, we link our own econometric predictions to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the California Employment Development Department to identify important changes in employment across industries and regions. The Beacon Employment Report is also one of the few analyses that uses seasonally adjusted numbers, which are critical to revealing accurate trends and insights within data. The analysis is a sample of the kind of research available from Beacon Economics.
CALIFORNIA JOB GROWTH EXPANDS AGAIN IN LATEST NUMBERS
Long Term Concern: Labor Force Declines For 6th Consecutive Month
Nonfarm employment in California expanded at a steady pace, increasing by 34,500 jobs in the latest numbers from the California Employment Development Department, according an analysis released jointly by Beacon Economics and the UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. This level of growth exceeds the monthly average over the last twelve months, which comes in at 26,200.
From a year-over-year perspective, California has added 314,200 as of August 2019. This is equivalent to a 1.8% year-over-year increase, which matches the fastest yearly growth rate out of any month in 2019 and is a better showing than the nation’s 1.4% rate.
“Once again, California and its regions experienced a month of job gains and record low unemployment rates,” said Robert Kleinhenz, Economist and Executive Director of Research at Beacon Economics and the UC Riverside Center for Forecasting. “These numbers continue to defy all the headline grabbing predictions that a recession is just around the corner.”
California’s unemployment rate has also held steady and is near an historic low, at 4.1%, as of August. Still, declining labor force growth is cause for concern. The state’s labor force contracted by 7,800 in July, the sixth consecutive month of decline. From August 2018 to August 2019, California’s labor force decreased by 0.2% (-41,500), however, the state’s faster growing regions are continuing to attract workers.