August 16, 2019
Beacon Employment Report
Presented by Beacon Economics
Welcome to the Beacon Employment Report, a unique analysis of California’s employment numbers and trends. Each month, we link our own econometric predictions to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the California Employment Development Department to identify important changes in employment across industries and regions. The Beacon Employment Report is also one of the few analyses that uses seasonally adjusted numbers, which are critical to revealing accurate trends and insights within data. The analysis is a sample of the kind of research available from Beacon Economics.
CALIFORNIA JOB GROWTH SLOWS; LABOR FORCE CONTINUES ITS DECLINE
Unemployment Rate Remains Near Historic Low
Nonfarm employment in California expanded at a modest pace, increasing by 19,600 jobs in the latest numbers from the California Employment Development Department, according an analysis released jointly by Beacon Economics and the UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. This level of growth falls below the monthly average over the last twelve months, which comes in at 26,000. In addition, last month’s (June) much more robust growth of 46,200 was revised down to 41,300 in the latest release.
From a year-over-year perspective, California has added 311,800 as of July 2019. This is equivalent to a 1.8% year-over-year increase, which is the fastest yearly growth rate out of any month in 2019 and a better showing than the nation’s 1.5% rate of jobs growth.
California’s unemployment rate remains near historic lows, dipping to 4.1% in July. Still, the state’s dwindling labor force growth is a cause for concern. The state’s labor force declined by 35,000 in July, the fifth consecutive monthly decrease, leaving the state’s labor force virtually unchanged from July of last year. However, the state’s faster growing regions are continuing to attract workers.
“Despite worries about the inversion of the yield curve, the real economy, as represented by the labor market and job growth, continues to advance throughout the state and its regions,” said Robert Kleinhenz, Economist and Executive Director of Research at Beacon Economics and the UC Riverside Center for Forecasting.