No Nonsense Economics
Relevant, hype-free insights about what’s happening in the global, U.S., and California economies.
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The holidays have always been a time of higher-than-normal consumer spending. However, a drift downward in spending at this festive time of year has been occurring for years. This is likely a function of many things, the most important of which may be the decline in the number of children in the United States.
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Today’s Fed Decision: The Funds Rate Is Irrelevant—QT Is What Matters Until we understand the direction the Fed is going with its quantitative tools, and the impact on bank deposits, we cannot predict if the banking situation will improve or get worse. Uncategorized March 23, 2023 Author: Christopher Thornberg, PhD Christopher Thornberg, PhD All Articles Today’s big news was that the Federal Reserve only raised the Federal Funds…
No Recession In 2023 So… all in all, in the year ahead, expect to be surprised largely by the lack of surprises. Uncategorized January 10, 2023 Author: Christopher Thornberg, PhD Christopher Thornberg, PhD All Articles “If the economy shrinks next year, no one should be surprised. We’re facing the most widely forecast recession in history.”Wall Street Journal, Dec 4, 2022 The year 2022 was like the proverbial month…
Quixotic Fed Policy and the Real Estate Cycle Beacon Economics is a leading provider of economic research,forecasting, and data analysis. Real Estate December 2, 2022 Author: Christopher Thornberg, PhD Christopher Thornberg, PhD All Articles Over the past year U.S. mortgage rates have risen from sub-3% to over 7%. Unsurprisingly the nation’s real estate market is swooning; home sales are plummeting, inventories of new homes for sale are rising…
