No Nonsense Economics

2
Oct

Prop 15 Analysis: Clarification

Beacon Economics takes great pride in both the quality and objectivity of its work and stands firmly behind the conclusions of its recent analysis of Proposition 15 (https://www.siliconvalleycf.org/sites/default/files/documents/scf/SVCF_Beacon_Prop_15_Analysis_9_2020.pdf). The study looks at one portion of the overall debate on the Proposition, specifically, whether the passage of Prop 15 and the removal of Prop 13 protections on commercial real estate would

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27
May

COVID-19 and the Creative Economy: Bruised, Not Broken

This article was co-authored by Practice Lead, Mazen Bou Zeineddine. It was originally published by the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. The current public health crisis resulting from the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has dealt a swift, heavy blow to the U.S. economy, and nowhere is this pain being felt more acutely than in the creative

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8
May

The Job-pocalypse?

The April employment report was released this morning and the grim tidings it delivered, while anticipated, were still quite startling. The U.S. unemployment rate shot to 14.7%, over 11 percentage points higher than in February, even as the number of payroll jobs in the nation fell by over 20 million. Never has the United States experienced such a dramatic decline

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30
Apr

The Expansion is Dead, Long Live the Expansion

As Beacon Economics has written in our published outlooks over the past six weeks, a true understanding of what is currently happening in the economy is limited given the delay in receiving relevant data, as well as the total lack of recent historical examples illustrating how pandemics impact economies. As such, any prediction of how the COVID-19 crisis will affect

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27
Jul

A GDP Reality Check

The 4.1% growth rate in U.S. Gross Domestic Product in the 2nd quarter (announced today) was not a surprise to anyone looking at the monthly numbers. In fact, it came in a bit below the consensus prediction of 4.5%. But that won’t stop the accolades the current administration will be handing itself over the coming months. This number will surely

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17
Jul

We Have Nothing To Fear But the Fear of Inflation Itself

‘Inflation expectation disorder’ seems to have become a full pandemic lately. News story after news story is discussing accelerating price growth not as a possible new trend, but as a current reality. “Consumer Inflation Hits 6 Year High” read one headline after the June CPI release. Inflation expectations are also on the rise according to the New York branch of the Federal Reserve,

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12
Jun

Is California’s Economy Really All About the Bay Area?

This era of regular and ongoing political “whoppers” coming out of Washington DC, seems to have ushered in an increased willingness outside the beltway to declare pretty much anything, regardless of having evidence to support said claim, or even worse, saying it in the face of contrary evidence. Deeply misleading comments about the economy can be particularly dangerous in my

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23
Apr

Amazon Headquarters Sweepstakes is Bad for Cities

Co-Authored by Christopher Thornberg, PhD Editor’s Note: This article originally appeared on Zocalo Public Square on May 2, 2018. Envious of Silicon Valley’s success, more than 80 places throughout the world have renamed one of their neighborhoods “Silicon-something,” including “Silicon Beach” in Los Angeles, “Silicon Bayou” in New Orleans, and “Silicon Roundabout” in London, as if the very word works an

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28
Feb

Immigration and Economic Growth

Our elected officials in Washington DC continue to struggle over the issue of immigration policy reform. The Trump administration has already made its views known, with its Muslim Ban, mixed signals on the DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) program, and more recently, its immigration reform proposal, a plan that reflects a much more restrictive stance toward immigrants than previous

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1
Dec

California Growth and the Construction Paradox

It is often said that generals always fight the last war—and this applies to that still highly overused and abused political catch phrase “jobs, jobs, jobs.” Such rhetoric about creating new jobs continues to be attached to the rollout of almost any new government policy, regardless of the veracity or relevance of the claim. Times change, as do economic realities

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