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  • Fed Policy in 2024: Bad News For People Who Like Bad News

    • December 19, 2023
    • Posted by: Christopher Thornberg, PhD
    • Categories: Economic Policy, Economics, General Economy
    No Comments
    Corporate Background With Business People Standing On Chart 3d Illustration

    For all the sophistication of modern asset markets, at their core, they are still just Keynesian beauty contests. Keynes’s metaphor for the markets derived from a special type of beauty contest where the judges don’t pick who they think is most attractive, but who they think will be most attractive to all the other judges. His intuition is that traders are mainly trying to anticipate what the average trader thinks the average trader thinks is about to happen. Such nested logic can generate wild volatility in the market’s response to the silliest peices of news. This has been proven yet again in the waning days of 2023 with a big jump in equity and bond prices, all because of the odd notion that there has been a sharp pivot in Federal Reserve policy. The market now anticipates that the Fed will lower interest rates multiple times next year.

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  • The Recession That Didn’t Happen… And Why Most Forecasters Got It Wrong

    • August 8, 2023
    • Posted by: Christopher Thornberg, PhD
    • Categories: Economic Policy, Economics, General Economy
    11 Comments
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