November 15, 2024
Beacon Employment Report | California
Presented by Beacon Economics
Copyright © Beacon Economics LLC
CALIFORNIA’S JOB GROWTH LOSES SOME MOMENTUM IN LATEST NUMBERS
Unemployment Rate Ticks Up; Labor Supply Struggles Continue
5,500
Decrease in Positions
California’s labor market growth lost momentum in October, with total nonfarm employment in the state falling to a seasonally adjusted 18,090,200, a decrease of 5,500 positions over the month.
Private employment grew by 2,000 to reach 15,413,100, but nevertheless, points to a weak month for the labor market. Key industries, such as Administrative Support and Leisure and Hospitality, in addition to State Government, sustained notable job losses. Similarly, September’s gains were revised down to a 12,700 increase in the latest data, a 2,000 decrease from the preliminary estimate of 14,700.
5.4%
Unemployment Rate
“To date, over the year, California has had three months of job declines, but this was the first month where employment in the service segment fell,” said Justin Niakamal, Research Manager at Beacon Economics. “Most of the weakness has been on the goods side of the ledger as goods-producing industries have shed jobs every month this year.” In all, goods-producing industries have lost roughly 40,000 jobs over the last twelve months, while services have expanded by nearly 252,000, according to Niakamal.
California’s unemployment rate rose to 5.4% in October, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The state’s unemployment rate remains among the highest in the nation and is 0.3% higher than it was in October 2023, particularly among younger workers. In a notable contrast, initial claims for unemployment insurance have remained stable over this period.
7,200
Labor Force Growth
California continues to experience stagnant labor supply growth. The state’s labor force expanded by just 7,200 in October and since February 2020, it has fallen by -187,700, a -1.0% decline. This stagnation is being driven largely by California’s housing shortage and by the retirement of aging workers.
Additionally, the household survey has diverged from the payroll survey in recent years. Total nonfarm employment is up 1.8% over the last two years according to the payroll survey, while household employment has remained nearly unchanged over the same period, according to the household survey. The divergence between the two surveys, which together provide the monthly estimates, suggests that there may be a downward correction in payroll employment coming when the annual revision of employment figures occurs in March.
View Seasonally Adjusted Industry Employment Data For California’s 28 MSA’s/MD’s:
The Beacon Employment Report | California is a unique analysis of California’s employment numbers and trends. Each month, we link our own econometric predictions to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the California Employment Development Department to identify important changes in employment across industries and regions. The Beacon Employment Report is also one of the few analyses that uses seasonally adjusted numbers, which are critical to revealing accurate trends and insights within data. The analysis is a sample of the kind of research available from Beacon Economics.
The contents of this report are based on information derived from carefully selected sources Beacon Economics believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing presented here shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee.
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