July 18, 2025
Beacon Employment Report | California
Presented by Beacon Economics
Copyright © Beacon Economics LLC
California Loses Jobs In Latest Numbers
Tariffs Causing Uncertainty, But These Losses Are About AI
6,100
Monthly Job Decline
California’s nonfarm payroll jobs declined in the latest numbers, a consequence not likely related to trade tariffs but to the creeping encroachment of AI. Total nonfarm employment in the state fell to a seasonally adjusted 18,011,100 in June, a loss of 6,100 positions over the month.
“Although the nation’s tariff chaos is certainly creating broad uncertainty, these losses aren’t about tariffs,” said Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner of Beacon Economics. “The declines were in Manufacturing, Information, and Professional Services and centered in the Bay Area, meaning they are a reflection of the ongoing contraction in the tech space, which in turn, is being driven by AI.”
5.4%
Unemployment Rate
California’s labor market continues to be supported by locally serving industries such as Health Care, Government, and Education. However, tariffs are causing uncertainty, particularly in industries reliant on inputs from abroad such as Manufacturing.
In the latest data, May’s jobs gains were also revised down to a 11,700 increase, 6,000 fewer jobs than the preliminary estimate of 17,700.
Employment growth in California continues to trail the nation. Since February 2020 (the start of the pandemic), total nonfarm employment in the state has grown 2.0% compared to a 4.9% increase nationally. From June 2024 to June 2025, California increased its payrolls by just 0.6%, trailing a 1.11% increase nationally over the same period.
33,400
Monthly Labor Supply Growth
The state’s unemployment rate increased to 5.4% in June, up 0.1 percentage-points over the previous month. At 5.4%, California’s unemployment rate remains among the highest in the nation, behind only Washington D.C..
California’s labor supply saw decent growth in June, expanding by 33,400 workers. Since February 2020, the state’s labor force has grown by just 212,700 workers, a 1.1% increase. Given the lagged timing of the monthly employment numbers, we will need to wait until next month to assess whether the recent and ongoing ICE raids are having an impact on California’s labor force numbers. Notably, the Los Angeles metro area managed to still gain jobs in June despite increased ICE activity.
The Beacon Employment Report | California is a unique analysis of California’s employment numbers and trends. Each month, we link our own econometric predictions to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the California Employment Development Department to identify important changes in employment across industries and regions. The Beacon Employment Report is also one of the few analyses that uses seasonally adjusted numbers, which are critical to revealing accurate trends and insights within data. The analysis is a sample of the kind of research available from Beacon Economics.
The contents of this report are based on information derived from carefully selected sources Beacon Economics believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing presented here shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee.
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