The annual benchmark revision, released today by the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC), left 2022’s employment figures virtually unchanged.

Nonfarm employment growth in the state from December 2021 to December 2022 was revised down from 5.0% to 4.8%. This revision translates into just 20,500 fewer jobs added in the state during the year than the TWC originally estimated. The state’s labor force growth, however, saw significant revisions. During the year, labor force growth in Texas was revised down from 2.3% to 1.5%.

At the industry level, the benchmark revision was mixed, with growth rates in some sectors revised upwards, while others were revised downwards. Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services experienced substantial revisions, revised up from 4.9% to 9.1%. This translates to an additional 49,300 jobs added in that sector during the year.  Job growth in Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities, buoyed by e-commerce spending, was also revised up, from an estimated growth rate of 3.1% to 5.8%. This translates to an additional 32,000 jobs added in that sector during the year. Upward revisions also occurred in Government payrolls, which was revised from 1.1% to 2.2%.

The biggest downward revisions during the year were in Real Estate and Rental and Leasing (revised from 16.0% to 7.0%), Mining and Logging (revised from 21.2% to 12.5% revised), and Leisure and Hospitality (revised from 11.3% to 6.1%). The revisions in Leisure and Hospitality translate into 75,000 fewer jobs added in that sector during the year. This was the result of a significant downward revision in Accommodation and Food Services, which was revised from 1.361 million to 1.303 million, or roughly 58,000 fewer positions than originally estimated. Despite these downward revisions, all of Texas’s major industries added jobs during the year.

At the metropolitan region level, job growth was revised up in some regions, and down in others. The largest upward revisions were in Midland (revised from 4.9% to 9.8%), Odessa (revised from 4.4% to 8.4%), and College-Station Bryan (revised from 2.9% to 5.3). The largest declines in year-over-year growth rates from December 2021 to December 2022 were in Houston-Woodlands-Sugar Land (revised from 5.7% to 4.7%), Wichita Falls (revised from 3.3% to 2.4%), and Lubbock (revised from 3.3% to 2.7%). Despite these downward revisions, job growth still occurred in all of the state’s major metros during the year.

“While the annual revision contained few surprises, it does provide us an opportunity to underscore the strength of the Texas economy since the beginning of the pandemic,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics. “The state’s economy has added 700,000 jobs compared to the pre-pandemic peak. To place this figure in context, the nation’s largest economy, California, added only 70,000 jobs during this period.”

Nonfarm employment in Texas kicked off 2023 with sizable gains. The latest figures released by the TWC reveal that employment in the state grew by 48,600 jobs in January. Since January 2022, Texas’ economy has added 654,100 jobs, which translates to a 5.0% year-over-year increase, surpassing the nation’s growth rate of 2.9% during that same period. Texas accounted for more than 15% of the jobs added nationwide in January.

The January numbers show that Texas’s unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%, up 0.1 percentage points from the prior month. January marks the 11th consecutive month in which the state’s unemployment rate has been below 4%. The Texas labor force also expanded by 47,800 workers in January, which was the largest one-month changes the state has seen since January 2022. Year-over-year gains for Texas’s labor force now stand at 1.5%, compared to 1.3% at the national level.

“As the media narrative has shifted from ‘a recession is coming’ to ‘the recession is delayed’, the Texas economy continues to move from strength to strength,” said Osman. “The latest figures reveal that there are no signs of a slowdown in the state’s economy yet.”

The Beacon Employment Report | Texas is a unique analysis of Texas’ employment numbers and trends. Each month, we link our own econometric predictions to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Labor Market Information Division of the Texas Workforce Commission to identify important changes in employment across industries and regions. The Beacon Employment Report is also one of the few analyses that uses seasonally adjusted numbers, which are critical to revealing accurate trends and insights within data. The analysis is a sample of the kind of research available from Beacon Economics.