Beacon Employment Report Texas

Texas’ labor market recovery continued its steady incline in March, with total nonfarm employment in the state increasing by 99,000 positions over the month. This represents the largest monthly increase in total nonfarm jobs in Texas since October 2020.

“February was a tough month for the state on a number of fronts, so it was good to see the labor market bounce back in such a strong way in March,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics. “And with the vaccine rollout continuing at a strong pace, there should be no stopping the state’s labor market recovery in the coming months.”

While 1,452,600 jobs were lost in Texas at the onset of the pandemic, the latest figures show that 744,100 jobs have been added back, meaning that 51.2% of the lost jobs have been recovered. As of March 2021, there were 469,200 fewer people employed in the state’s economy compared to February 2020.

The state’s labor market recovery has outperformed the national recovery, according to the analysis. While total nonfarm employment in Texas contracted 3.6% from February 2020 to March 2021, nationally, total nonfarm employment contracted 5.5% over the same period. Moreover, Texas’ labor market recovery will gather speed over the coming months, especially since Texas has opened COVID-19 vaccines to all adults, one of the first states to do so.

The state’s employment gains in March were coupled with no change in the unemployment rate, which stood at 6.8%. The unemployment rate in Texas has been consistent since December 2020, leaving it elevated relative to the nation overall, where the unemployment rate was 6.0% in March. However, Texas’ underperformance on this metric is, somewhat counter-intuitively, a strength.

The unemployment rate is a function of those without work divided by the size of the labor force. The labor force includes both job holders and those who are seeking work. The Texas labor force has almost fully recovered since one year ago, standing at 98.9% of February 2020 levels, much higher than the national labor force recovery of 97.6%. And the strength of Texas’ recovery continued in March, with 27,000 additional workers joining the labor force.

The Beacon Employment Report | Texas is a unique analysis of Texas’ employment numbers and trends. Each month, we link our own econometric predictions to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Labor Market Information Division of the Texas Workforce Commission to identify important changes in employment across industries and regions. The Beacon Employment Report is also one of the few analyses that uses seasonally adjusted numbers, which are critical to revealing accurate trends and insights within data. The analysis is a sample of the kind of research available from Beacon Economics.