Beacon Economics

November 17, 2023

Beacon Employment Report | Texas

Presented by Beacon Economics

Copyright © Beacon Economics LLC

AFTER YEARS OF GROWTH, TEXAS LABOR MARKET FALTERS (SLIGHTLY) FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY 2021

STATE’S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNCHANGED FOR 6th STRAIGHT MONTH

1,300

Jobs Shedded

Texas’s job figures fell short of expectations in the latest data as the number of payrolls marginally declined from the prior month. New figures from the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) reveal that the state’s employers shed 1,300 nonfarm payrolls in October, a 0.01% decrease from the previous month. This compares to a 0.1% increase in the number of jobs nationally.

2.9%

Nonfarm Employment Growth

This is the first time that the number of jobs in Texas has fallen since February 2021. Nonfarm employment in the state has increased by 2.9% year-over-year, compared to 1.9% nationally. Texas has accounted for more than 13% of the net nonfarm jobs added nationwide over the last twelve months. In absolute terms, the largest job increases over the past year have occurred in Texas (+391,500), followed by California (+285,300) and Florida (+278,400).

“The slight downtick in the month is a surprise, but we shouldn’t read too much into one month’s figures,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics. “A slower month of job gains does not detract from Texas’s overall performance this year, as the state has added jobs at a much quicker rate than the rest of the nation.”

4.1%

Unemployment Rate

Texas’s unemployment rate stood at 4.1% in October, unchanged for the sixth consecutive month. At the national level, the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage points to 3.9%, the highest rate since January 2022. The Texas labor force increased by 0.1% month-over-month, a jump of nearly 21,000 workers, while at the national level, the labor force declined. Texas’s labor force growth has been impressive in 2023, increasing 2.8% since the beginning of the year, twice the national rate of 1.1%. Overall, Texas has accounted for more than 21% of the increase in the nation’s labor force this year.

The Beacon Employment Report | Texas is a unique analysis of Texas’ employment numbers and trends. Each month, we link our own econometric predictions to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Labor Market Information Division of the Texas Workforce Commission to identify important changes in employment across industries and regions. The Beacon Employment Report is also one of the few analyses that uses seasonally adjusted numbers, which are critical to revealing accurate trends and insights within data. The analysis is a sample of the kind of research available from Beacon Economics.

The contents of this report are based on information derived from carefully selected sources Beacon Economics believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing presented here shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee.

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