No Nonsense Economics
Relevant, hype-free insights about what’s happening in the global, U.S., and California economies.
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For all the sophistication of modern asset markets, at their core, they are still just Keynesian beauty contests. Keynes’s metaphor for the markets derived from a special type of beauty contest where the judges don’t pick who they think is most attractive, but who they think will be most attractive to all the other judges. His intuition is that traders…
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No Recession In 2023 So… all in all, in the year ahead, expect to be surprised largely by the lack of surprises. Uncategorized January 10, 2023 Author: Christopher Thornberg, PhD Christopher Thornberg, PhD All Articles “If the economy shrinks next year, no one should be surprised. We’re facing the most widely forecast recession in history.”Wall
Quixotic Fed Policy and the Real Estate Cycle Beacon Economics is a leading provider of economic research,forecasting, and data analysis. Real Estate December 2, 2022 Author: Christopher Thornberg, PhD Christopher Thornberg, PhD All Articles Over the past year U.S. mortgage rates have risen from sub-3% to over 7%. Unsurprisingly the nation’s real estate market is
It’s The Demand Curve, Stupid… The biggest obstacle to slowing inflation is that the real causes of it—excessive consumer demand and rapidly rising wages—are too politically toxic to acknowledge. Consumers, Economic Policy, General Economy, Uncategorized September 15, 2022 Author: Christopher Thornberg, PhD Christopher Thornberg, PhD All Articles The biggest obstacle to slowing inflation is that the real causes