The holidays have always been a time of higher-than-normal consumer spending. However, a drift downward in spending at this festive time of year has been occurring for years. This is likely a function of many things, the most important of which may be the decline in the number of children in the United States.

For all the sophistication of modern asset markets, at their core, they are still just Keynesian beauty contests. Keynes’s metaphor for the markets derived from a special type of beauty contest where the judges don’t pick who they think is most attractive, but who they think will be most attractive to all the other judges. His intuition is that traders are mainly trying to anticipate what the average…

The Recession That Didn’t Happen… And Why Most Forecasters Got It Wrong In arguing that there will be no near-term recession, Beacon Economics has been an outlier in the forecasting community. Economic Policy, Economics, General Economy August 8, 2023 Author: Christopher Thornberg, PhD Christopher Thornberg, PhD All Articles Much to the chagrin of those who have been predicting otherwise, the U.S. economy has stubbornly continued to grow—and 2023 is shaping…