No Nonsense Economics
Relevant, hype-free insights about what’s happening in the global, U.S., and California economies.
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People should respond to real experiences more than to the labels attached to those experiences – that’s the concept of the rational agent. In practice, however, labels do matter… a lot.
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For all the sophistication of modern asset markets, at their core, they are still just Keynesian beauty contests. Keynes’s metaphor for the markets derived from a special type of beauty contest where the judges don’t pick who they think is most attractive, but who they think will be most attractive to all the other judges. His intuition is that traders are mainly trying to anticipate what the average…
The Recession That Didn’t Happen… And Why Most Forecasters Got It Wrong In arguing that there will be no near-term recession, Beacon Economics has been an outlier in the forecasting community. Economic Policy, Economics, General Economy August 8, 2023 Author: Christopher Thornberg, PhD Christopher Thornberg, PhD All Articles Much to the chagrin of those who have been predicting otherwise, the U.S. economy has stubbornly continued to grow—and 2023 is shaping…
Californians Moving Out Is Not The State’s Most Worrisome Trend Exploring the overlooked trend of Californians staying put and its implications. Economic Policy, Real Estate May 24, 2023 Author: Benjamin Noon Benjamin Noon All Articles Over the past few years, it would have been difficult to miss news coverage reporting that people are leaving California for states like Texas and Florida. While this outmigration is important, Beacon Economics has…