California’s merchandise export trade was valued at $16.818 billion in October, according to Beacon Economics’ analysis of the latest statistics released by the U.S. Census Bureau’s Foreign Trade Division. That represented a 2.0% increase over the $16.484 billion in exports recorded in the same month one year earlier.

Over the same period, however, overall U.S. exports jumped by 14.7% to $202.783 billion from $176.871 in the previous October. As a result, California’s share of the nation’s merchandise export trade shrank to 8.3% from 9.3% one year earlier.

Exports of California’s manufactured products in October edged up by a nominal 4.9% to $9.943 billion from $9.488 billion. Meanwhile, the state’s shipments abroad of non-manufactured commodities grew 4.1% to $2.369 billion from $2.275 billion. Re-exports fell by 4.5% to 4.507 billion from $4.720 billion in October 2024.

During the year’s first ten quarters, California’s merchandise export trade totaled $157.261 billion, up 3.0% from $152.616 during the same period in 2024.

“Probably the most remarkable finding that pops out of the latest export numbers is the continued collapse of the once-promising electric vehicle manufacturing industry in the state,” said Jock O’Connell, Beacon Economics’ International Trade Advisor. “It’s not just that EV exports this past October were down 74.2% from a year earlier, October’s exports were just one-twentieth of California’s EV export trade six years ago in pre-pandemic October 2019.”

California Accounts For One-Sixth Of All U.S. Imports In October Data

The U.S. Commerce Department reports that California was again the nation’s leading state-of-destination for imported goods. Still, while the state’s 16.5% share of all U.S. merchandise imports in October was valued at $45.100 billion, that figure represents virtually no change from the $45.054 billion imported into California in October 2024.

• Manufactured imports in October rose by 2.4% to $41.392 billion from $40.415 billion one year earlier. 
• Non-manufactured imports in October were valued at $3.708, down by 20.1% from the $4.640 billion in non-manufactured goods the state imported in October 2024.

Please note that Beacon Economics has long taken a skeptical view of the federal government’s state-of-destination statistics. The data’s fundamental shortcoming is that they capture not just goods consumed by California residents or used by California businesses but also a sizable quantity of imported merchandise that is offloaded at California ports but is bound for markets elsewhere in the country.

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE NUMBERS

As always, Beacon Economics advises against reading too much into month-to-month fluctuations in state export statistics, especially when focusing on specific commodities or destinations. Significant variations can occur due to unusual developments or exceptional one-off trades and may not be indicative of underlying trends. For that reason, Beacon Economics compares the latest three months for which data are available (i.e., August-October) with the corresponding period one year earlier. Please note that the numbers cited in this report are nominal values.

LEADING EXPORT COMMODITIES

The table below displays the latest year-over-year changes in California’s merchandise export trade. In recent years, eleven commodity groups have posted three-month export totals exceeding $1 billion. In the latest quarter, Primary Metal Manufacturing joined that group. Still, all but four recorded year-over-year declines. It is especially noteworthy that Agricultural exports outranked exports of Transportation Equipment in the latest three-month period.

DESTINATIONS

Thirteen foreign markets recorded one billion dollars or more in imports from California in this year’s third quarter. Australia, which sustained a 20.7% drop in imports from California during the July-October period, fell out of the billion-dollar league. Remarkably, but unsurprisingly, shipments to China and Hong Kong continued their precipitous declines as both Japan and Taiwan claimed larger shares of California’s transpacific export trade than China. Australia, which had been ranked among the billion-dollars-per-quarter markets for California goods, slipped below the billion-dollar mark in the August-October survey period.
 

In this latest three-month period, California’s merchandise export trade with the economies of East Asia slipped by 3.4% as the value of shipments across the Pacific totaled $15.385 billion, down from $15.928 billion one year earlier. Meanwhile, California’s exports to the European Union and the United Kingdom jumped by 11.4% to $9.526 billion from $8.550 billion. The state’s exports to Latin America and the Caribbean (excluding Mexico) dropped by 10.0% to $2.369 billion from $2.633 billion. Finally, California’s shipments to the nations of Sub-Saharan Africa officially amounted to just $174.6 million in the latest three months.

Mexico and Canada, America’s partners in the Canada-Mexico-US Free Trade Area, combined to account for 28.4% of California’s $47.765 billion merchandise export trade in this year’s August-October period as the nominal value of shipments to our immediate neighbors declined by 4.6% to $13.550 billion from $14.207 billion one year earlier.  

MODE OF TRANSPORT

Well over half (53.3%) of California’s $47.765 billion merchandise export trade in this year’s August through October period was shipped by air, while waterborne transport accounted for 22.7% of the state’s outbound overseas trade. The balance of the state’s exports largely travelled overland to Canada and Mexico.

THE OUTLOOK

Foreign trade statistics from late summer and early autumn, while of historic interest, provide few clues to the future prospects for global trade in general and California’s merchandise export trade in particular. We are at a point now where national policymakers around the world are being obliged to address how fragile the international trading system has become under President Trump.

Foreign leaders and business executives are now evaluating the extent to which they want to continue to rely on a partner that appears increasingly intent on pursuing objectives that reflect not just an America First outlook but one that all but ignores its trading partners. President Trump’s extra-territorial actions in Venezuela, his continued references to intervening in Mexico to quell drug cartels, and his historical desire to take control of Greenland – and perhaps make Canada a 51st state – puts much of the rest of the world in the position of wondering whether they want to join America in the corner into which the president has been aggressively painting the nation.