California’s merchandise export trade was valued at $15.523 billion in November, according to Beacon Economics’ analysis of the latest statistics released by the U.S. Census Bureau’s Foreign Trade Division. That represented a 1.4% decline from the $15.751 billion in exports recorded in the same month one year earlier.

Over the same period, however, overall U.S. exports increased by 4.4% to $182.146 billion from $174.392 in the previous November. As a result, California’s share of the nation’s merchandise export trade shrank to 8.5% from 9.0% one year earlier.

Exports of California’s manufactured products in November edged up by a nominal 3.8% year-over-year to $9.301 billion from $8.958 billion. Meanwhile, the state’s shipments abroad of non-manufactured commodities declined by 3.0% to $2.328 billion from $2.400 billion. Re-exports fell by 11.3% to $3.894 billion from $4.392 billion one year earlier.

During the year’s first eleven months, California’s merchandise export trade totaled $172.784 billion, up 2.6% from the $168.366 reached during the same period in 2024.

“In November, the value of exports from California that were actually produced in the United States rose by 2.4% from one year ago,” said Jock O’Connell, Beacon Economics’ International Trade Advisor. “The overall dip in the state’s export trade in November was due to a sharp fall-off in shipments of previously imported merchandise.”

California accounted for one-sixth of all U.S. merchandise imports in November.

The U.S. Commerce Department reports that California was again the nation’s leading state-of-destination for imported goods. Still, while the state’s 14.8% share of all U.S. merchandise imports in November was valued at $38.912 billion, that figure represented a 7.2% drop from the $41.929 billion imported into California in November 2024.

• Manufactured imports in November fell by 4.8% to $35.344 billion from $37.109 billion one year earlier.
• Non-manufactured imports in November were valued at $3.569, down by 25.9% from the $4.819 billion in non-manufactured goods the state imported in November 2024.

Please note that Beacon Economics has long taken a skeptical view of the federal government’s state-of-destination statistics. The data’s fundamental shortcoming is that they capture not just goods consumed by California residents or used by California businesses but also a sizable quantity of imported merchandise that is offloaded at California ports but is bound for markets elsewhere in the country.

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE NUMBERS

As always, Beacon Economics advises against reading too much into month-to-month fluctuations in state export statistics, especially when focusing on specific commodities or destinations. Significant variations can occur due to unusual developments or exceptional one-off trades and may not be indicative of underlying trends. For that reason, Beacon Economics compares the latest three months for which data are available (i.e., September-November) with the corresponding period one year earlier. Please note that the numbers cited in this report are nominal values.

LEADING EXPORT COMMODITIES

The table below displays the latest year-over-year changes in California’s merchandise export trade. In recent years, eleven commodity groups have posted three-month export totals exceeding $1 billion. In the latest quarter, Primary Metal Manufacturing joined that group, but Petroleum & Coal Exports missed the mark. Still, all but four recorded year-over-year declines. It is especially noteworthy that exports of Agricultural Products have advanced to second place, ahead of exports of Transportation Equipment and Chemicals in the latest three-month period.

DESTINATIONS

Fourteen foreign markets recorded one billion dollars or more in imports from California in the latest three-month period. Not surprisingly, shipments to China and Hong Kong continued their precipitous declines as Taiwan, Japan, and the Netherlands claimed larger shares of California’s export trade than China. Germany and the United Kingdom also claimed places among the top ten export destinations for California exports.
 

In the September-November period, California’s merchandise export trade with the economies of East Asia slipped by 2.4% as the value of shipments across the Pacific totaled $15.526 billion, down from $15.913 billion one year earlier. Meanwhile, California’s exports to the European Union jumped by 11.1% to $8.168 billion from $7.353 billion. The state’s exports to Latin America and the Caribbean (excluding Mexico) dropped by 8.1% to $2.283 billion from $2.484 billion. Finally, California’s shipments to the nations of Sub-Saharan Africa officially amounted to $175 million in these latest three months.

Mexico and Canada, America’s partners in the Canada-Mexico-US Free Trade Area, combined to account for 27.8% of California’s $47.867 billion merchandise export trade in this year’s September-November period as the nominal value of shipments to our immediate neighbors declined by 5.6% to $13.298 billion from $14.087 billion one year earlier.   

MODE OF TRANSPORT

Well over half (52.3%) of California’s $47.867 billion merchandise export trade in this year’s September through November period was shipped by air, while waterborne transport accounted for 24.0% of the state’s outbound overseas trade. Containerized shipments accounted for 18.0% of the total value of California’s export trade.

The balance of the state’s exports largely travelled overland to Canada and Mexico.

THE OUTLOOK

We continue to await a much-delayed ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court on the constitutionality of President Trump’s unilateral imposition of tariffs on imported merchandise. Article One of the Constitution grants Congress the exclusive authority to regulate foreign commerce, including the imposition of duties on imported goods. However, Congress has long delegated to the President sweeping privileges in administering the nation’s commercial relations with foreign powers.

It also seems apparent that Robert’s Supreme Court is ill-disposed to confront President Trump over any major constitutional issue, let alone one that could involve reimbursement by the U.S. Treasury of the estimated $200 billion collected by the president’s tariffs – tariffs that have been paid by U.S. businesses and consumers. We expect that whatever ruling ultimately emerges from the Court will be opaque and convoluted in its legal reasoning. It will likely be open to a variety of interpretations, with the result effectively upholding President’s Trump’s broad authority to impose whatever tariffs he wishes for whatever reason he deems sufficient.

For the time being, confusion will persist over U.S. tariffs, and the steps America’s trading partners will take to retaliate against U.S. exports. Beyond that, though, it seems evident that America’s reputation for reliability as a commercial partner is being eroded as businesses abroad are increasingly looking to seek alternative sources of supply.

What good news there is for California exporters involves the cheaper dollar. The greenback is now down 12.5% from one year ago. Foreign buyers are theoretically seeing bargain prices for American products, providing that those U.S. goods do not face tariffs that foreign governments have imposed in response to President Trump’s actions. Unfortunately, while the decline in the dollar’s value may make California and other U.S. exports cheaper, it also imposes added expenses on California companies that must import components or other inputs (e.g., everything from computer chips to fertilizers) to produce the products they plan to export.

Accurate, timely data is essential to navigating any business, and there is some positive news on the foreign trade front: The U.S. Commerce Department now expects to release data covering U.S. international trade in December on February 19, as the department’s statisticians continue to catch up after the 43-day shutdown that began on October 1, 2025. Of course, this assumes that another shutdown does not occur in February due to a congressional impasse over the funding of federal government operations beyond this weekend.