California’s merchandise export trade was valued at $15.526 billion in September, according to Beacon Economics’ analysis of the latest statistics released by the U.S. Census Bureau’s Foreign Trade Division. That represented a 2.4% contraction from the $15.906 billion in exports recorded in September 2024.

Over the same period, U.S. exports rose by 8.3% to $185.627 billion from $171.437 billion. As a result, California’s share of the nation’s merchandise export trade dropped to 8.4% from 9.3% one year earlier.

Exports of California’s manufactured products in September fell by 11.5% year-over-year to $8.939 billion from $10.101 billion. Meanwhile, the state’s shipments abroad of non-manufactured commodities increased by 5.8% to $1.910 billion from $1.806 billion. Re-exports leapt by 17.0% to $4.678 billion from $3.999 billion in September 2024. 

“A strong showing by the state’s Computer & Electronics industries rescued California’s export trade in September from a particularly severe year-over-year decline; exports of Chemicals and Agricultural Produce also held their own,”said Jock O’Connell, Beacon Economics’ International Trade Advisor. “Otherwise, September’s export story was largely written in red ink.”

During the year’s first three quarters, California’s merchandise export trade totaled $140.443 billion, up 3.2% from $136.132 in the same quarter last year.

California Accounts For One-Seventh Of All U.S. Imports In September Data

The U.S. Commerce Department reports that California was again the nation’s leading state-of-destination for imported goods. Still, the state’s 14.2% share of all U.S. merchandise imports in September was valued at $39.126 billion, an 11.6% decline from the $44.255 billion in imported goods that entered the state in September 2024.

• Manufactured imports in September dropped by 12.1% to $35.062 billion from $39.881 billion one year earlier. 
•  Non-manufactured imports were valued at $4.064 billion, down by 7.1% from the $4.374 billion in non-manufactured goods the state imported in September 2024.  

Please note that Beacon Economics has long taken a skeptical view of the federal government’s state-of-destination statistics. The data’s fundamental shortcoming is that they capture not just goods consumed by California residents or used by California businesses but also a sizable quantity of imported merchandise that is offloaded at California ports but is bound for markets elsewhere in the country.

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE NUMBERS

As always, Beacon Economics advises against reading too much into month-to-month fluctuations in state export statistics, especially when focusing on specific commodities or destinations. Significant variations can occur due to unusual developments or exceptional one-off trades and may not be indicative of underlying trends. For that reason, Beacon Economics compares the latest three months for which data are available (i.e., July-September) with the corresponding period one year earlier. Please note that the numbers cited in this report are nominal values.

LEADING EXPORT COMMODITIES

The table below displays year-over-year changes in California’s merchandise exports. In recent years, eleven commodity groups have posted three-month export totals exceeding $1 billion. In the latest quarter, all but three recorded year-over-year declines.

DESTINATIONS

Thirteen foreign markets recorded one billion dollars or more in imports from California in this year’s third quarter. Australia, which sustained a 20.7% drop in imports from California during the July-September period, fell out of the billion-dollar league. Remarkably, but unsurprisingly, shipments to China and Hong Kong continued their precipitous declines as both Japan and Taiwan claimed larger shares of California’s transpacific export trade.
 

In this year’s third quarter, the state’s merchandise export trade with the economies of East Asia slipped by 2.6% as the value of shipments across the Pacific totaled $15.626 billion, down from $16.037 billion one year earlier.

Meanwhile, California’s exports to the European Union jumped by 15.5% to $8.417 billion from $7.285 billion. The state’s exports to Latin America and the Caribbean (excluding Mexico) dropped by 10.4% to $2.327 billion from $2.596 billion.

Finally, California’s shipments to the nations of Sub-Saharan Africa rose by 10.7% to $175 million from $158 million.

Mexico and Canada, America’s partners in the Canada-Mexico-US Free Trade Area, combined to account for 27.4% of California’s $46.879 billion merchandise export trade in this year’s July-September period as the nominal value of shipments to our immediate neighbors declined by 6.0% to $12.851 billion from $13.673 billion.

MODE OF TRANSPORT

Just under half (49.6%) of California’s $46.879 billion merchandise export trade in this year’s third quarter was shipped by air, while waterborne transport accounted for 23.6% of the state’s outbound trade. The balance of the state’s exports largely travelled overland to Canada and Mexico. 

THE OUTLOOK

As of this writing, the U.S. Commerce Department is unable to say when foreign trade statistics for October, November, or December will be made available. Foreign trade data from the third quarter of this year, while interesting, are not especially helpful in assessing the latest trends in trade, especially when U.S. trade policy remains fairly inconsistent. Beacon Economics is again refraining from issuing a specific outlook for the economic and political environment California businesses are likely to encounter in the immediate future. Knowing where we are is essential to any understanding of where we may be headed.