California’s merchandise export trade was valued at $15.421 billion in August, according to a Beacon Economics’ analysis of the latest statistics released by the U.S. Census Bureau’s Foreign Trade Division. That represented a 4.7% decline from the $16.189 billion in exports recorded in the same month last year.

Over the same period, overall U.S. exports slipped by 0.4% to $179.707 billion from $180.442 billion. As a result, California’s share of the nation’s merchandise export trade moved up to 8.6% from 9.0% one year earlier.

Exports of California’s manufactured products in August fell by 2.5% year-over-year to $9.840 billion from $10.097 billion. Meanwhile, the state’s shipments abroad of non-manufactured commodities rose by 4.6% to $1.811 billion from $1.732 billion. Re-exports plunged by 13.5% to $3.770 billion from $4.360 billion in August 2024.

“It could have been worse,” said Jock O’Connell, Beacon Economics’ International Trade Advisor. “A disproportionate share of the products California ships abroad has been subject to disorienting vacillations in U.S. trade policy. What was permissible under export control rules one month may be denied the next.”

During the year’s first eight months, California’s merchandise export trade totaled $124.917 billion, up 3.9% from $120.226 in the same period last year.

California Accounts For One-Seventh Of All U.S. Imports In August Data

The U.S. Commerce Department reports that California was again the nation’s leading state-of-destination for imported goods. Still, while the state’s 14.7 % share of all U.S. merchandise imports in August was valued at $38.515 billion, that figure represented a 9.1% decline from the $42.370 billion in imported goods that entered the state in August 2024.

• Manufactured imports in August dropped by 9.0% to $34.156 billion from $37.551 billion one year earlier.
• Non-manufactured imports were valued at $4.359 billion, down by 9.5% from the $4.819 billion in non-manufactured goods the state imported in August 2024.  

Please note that Beacon Economics has long taken a skeptical view of the federal government’s state-of-destination statistics. The data’s fundamental shortcoming is that they capture not just goods consumed by California residents or used by California businesses but also a sizable quantity of imported merchandise that is offloaded at California ports but is bound for markets elsewhere in the country.

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE NUMBERS

As always, Beacon Economics advises against reading too much into month-to-month fluctuations in state export statistics, especially when focusing on specific commodities or destinations. Significant variations can occur due to unusual developments or exceptional one-off trades and may not be indicative of underlying trends. For that reason, Beacon Economics compares the latest three months for which data are available (i.e., June-August) with the corresponding period one year earlier. Please note that the numbers cited in this report are nominal values.

LEADING EXPORT COMMODITIES

The table below displays year-over-year changes in California’s merchandise exports. In recent years, eleven commodity groups have posted three-month export totals exceeding $1 billion.

DESTINATIONS

Fourteen foreign markets recorded one billion dollars or more in imports from California in this year’s June-August period. Remarkably but unsurprisingly, shipments to China and Hong Kong continued their precipitous declines as both Japan and Taiwan claimed larger shares of California’s transpacific export trade.
 

In this year’s June-August period, the state’s merchandise export trade with the economies of East Asia rose by just 2.7% as the value of shipments across the Pacific totaled $16.314 billion, up from $15.892 billion one year earlier.

Meanwhile, California’s exports to the European Union jumped by 12.8% to $7.695 billion from $6.821 billion.

The state’s exports to Latin America and the Caribbean (excluding Mexico) dropped by 11.1% to $2.230 billion from $2.508 billion.

Finally, California’s shipments to the nations of Sub-Saharan Africa rose by 6.4% to $169 million from $159 million. Approximately 40% of all California shipments to Sub-Saharan Africa are shipped to South Africa. Last year, Nigeria was the destination of 14.1% of California’s export to Sub-Saharan Africa.

Mexico and Canada, America’s partners in the Canada-Mexico-US Free Trade Area, combined to account for 26.2% of California’s entire merchandise export trade in this year’s June-August period as the nominal value of shipments to our immediate neighbors declined by 9.3% to $12.328 billion from $13.585 billion. 

MODE OF TRANSPORT

Over half (52.9%) of California’s $47.003 billion merchandise export trade in this year’s June-August period was shipped by air, while waterborne transport accounted for 23.5% of the state’s outbound trade. The balance of the state’s exports largely travelled overland to Canada and Mexico. 

THE OUTLOOK

Beacon Economics will not resume including our usual Outlook remarks until the U.S. Commerce Department is able to bring the nation’s trade statistics up to date. We do not expect that to happen until January 2026.