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Fall 2018


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Welcome to Beaconomics, a forecast for the United States and California economies.

This succinct, quarterly outlook delivers up-to-date analysis of leading indicators driving the state and national economies, including GDP growth, employment, housing and commercial real estate markets, taxable sales, international trade, and more.


Second Longest Economic Expansion in U.S. History Likely To Continue
Long Term Stressors A Cause For Concern

The U.S. is currently in the midst of the second longest economic expansion in the nation’s history, and odds are it will become the longest. Despite ongoing concerns about the onset of another recession, the U.S. and California economies remain on a solid upswing – and the new forecast says that should continue for the remainder of the year although growth will slow in 2019.

The latest data indeed paints a positive near-term picture. U.S. GDP growth came in above 4% in the second quarter, the strongest reading since 2014, and industrial production is up 4% from one year ago, another recent best. The consumer savings rate is also better than previously believed based on revisions made in the recent GDP release. 

This rosy picture, however, has built-in instability – and could turn dark. A longer-term view reveals...



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