Welcome to Beaconomics, a forecast for the United States and California economies.
This succinct, quarterly outlook delivers up-to-date analysis of leading indicators driving the state and national economies, including GDP growth, employment, housing and commercial real estate markets, taxable sales, international trade, and more.
Trump 'Unknowns' Continue To Cloud Economic Forecast
The ability to accurately forecast where the U.S. and California economies are headed continues to be seriously hampered by the enormous uncertainties stemming from the ongoing turmoil of President Donald Trump’s administration.
The latest version of Beaconomics identifies two oddly opposing themes that form the backdrop of the economic outlook: 1) both the U.S. and California economies continue the steady, modest economic expansion they have been on, and 2) there is no clear public policy agenda from the new administration as it struggles with a variety of political crises largely of its own making.
With a strengthening global economy, a rebound in mining activity, and tightening labor markets, the new forecast has U.S. economic growth in 2017 coming in at about 2.5%. “The year is likely to start on a slower note, a very typical pattern we've seen in the expansion,” said Beacon Economics’ Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg, one of the forecast authors. “But economic fundamentals continue to strengthen and will make the rest of the year stronger—implying that...