Welcome to Beaconomics, a forecast for the United States and California economies.
This succinct, quarterly outlook delivers up-to-date analysis of leading indicators driving the state and national economies, including GDP growth, employment, housing and commercial real estate markets, taxable sales, international trade, and more.
Trump Win Changes U.S. Outlook But 'Unknowns' Are Huge
The election of Donald Trump has caused a leading economic forecast to change its U.S. outlook from one of steady, if mediocre, economic expansion to one with the very real possibility of a coming recession. This is partially based on the fact that the Republicans unexpectedly won both chambers of Congress, removing the political gridlock that might have prevented major policy changes from occurring.
While the specific economic outcomes of a Trump presidency are largely unknown and will depend on what happens during the first few months of his administration, the forecast released today by Beacon Economics points to several policies he campaigned aggressively on that could create enough of a shock to the economy to tip the nation into a recessionary period.
“What we do know is that the potential upsides are limited, and the potential downsides are enormous—to the point that there is now a very real probability of a recession over the next two years,” said Beacon Economics’ Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg, one of the forecast’s authors.
Specifically, Trump’s pledges to do the following could have seriously damaging effects on the functioning of the economy...