Economic Policy

15
Sep

It’s The Demand Curve, Stupid…

The biggest obstacle to slowing inflation is that the real causes of it—excessive consumer demand and rapidly rising wages—are too politically toxic to acknowledge. The August CPI report showed prices in the United States continuing to increase, contrary to the predictions of most Blue-Chip forecasts and the Federal Reserve. This has spooked the markets and caused a sharp decline in

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1
Aug

Why We Are Not In A Recession (at least not yet)

In conversations about the economy, there are a lot of conventional wisdoms that are neither conventional nor wise. One very relevant example today is the idea that a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, exactly what the United States experienced in the first half of 2022. This definition enjoys wide acceptance and shows up in

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10
May

What The Fed’s Rate Hike And The 1st Quarter Contraction Means… And Doesn’t Mean

Given the frenzied and contradictory economic news lately, I wouldn’t blame anyone for having a bad case of whiplash. It’s difficult to get a read on what’s happening when the headlines flip between bull and bear faster than the stock market. One moment the discussion is about labor shortages restraining growth even as the administration pitches new relief efforts, how

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24
Feb

Miserabilism and Money: Why More Stimulus Is A Bad Idea (part 2)

18
Feb

Miserabilism and Money: Why More Stimulus Is A Bad Idea (part 1)

21
Jan

It’s Time To Relearn Objectivity In 2021

2
Oct

Prop 15 Analysis: Clarification

27
May

COVID-19 and the Creative Economy: Bruised, Not Broken

27
Jul

A GDP Reality Check

17
Jul

We Have Nothing To Fear But the Fear of Inflation Itself

‘Inflation expectation disorder’ seems to have become a full pandemic lately. News story after news story is discussing accelerating price growth not as a possible new trend, but as a current reality. “Consumer Inflation Hits 6 Year High” read one headline after the June CPI release. Inflation expectations are also on the rise according to the New York branch of the Federal Reserve,

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