Economic Policy

“If the economy shrinks next year, no one should be surprised. We’re facing the most widely forecast recession in history.” Wall Street Journal, Dec 4, 2022 The year 2022 was like the proverbial month of March—it came in like a lion and went out like a lamb. The start of the year was full of optimism following 2021’s high-growth recovery

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The biggest obstacle to slowing inflation is that the real causes of it—excessive consumer demand and rapidly rising wages—are too politically toxic to acknowledge. The August CPI report showed prices in the United States continuing to increase, contrary to the predictions of most Blue-Chip forecasts and the Federal Reserve. This has spooked the markets and caused a sharp decline in

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In conversations about the economy, there are a lot of conventional wisdoms that are neither conventional nor wise. One very relevant example today is the idea that a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, exactly what the United States experienced in the first half of 2022. This definition enjoys wide acceptance and shows up in

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Given the frenzied and contradictory economic news lately, I wouldn’t blame anyone for having a bad case of whiplash. It’s difficult to get a read on what’s happening when the headlines flip between bull and bear faster than the stock market. One moment the discussion is about labor shortages restraining growth even as the administration pitches new relief efforts, how

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